Oliver’s Insights – Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

Oliver’s Insights – Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?

With shares coming up to the one year anniversary of their pandemic lockdown driven lows on 23rd March 2020, the attached note takes a look at where we are in the cyclical bull market in shares and the broader investment.

The key points are as follows:

  • The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go.
  • But it’s normal for the second 12 months of a cyclical bull market to see slower returns from shares.
  • While shares are vulnerable to a further correction triggered by the spike in bond yields, we are not seeing the sort of unambiguous overvaluation, economic overheating, monetary tightening and investor euphoria normally seen at cyclical tops.

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