Oliver’s Insights – Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away” and what about renewed trade war fears?

Oliver’s Insights – Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away” and what about renewed trade war fears?

The attached note looks at seasonal patterns in share markets.

The key points are as follows:

  • Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November. This partly reflects a combination of tax loss selling in the US, new year cheer and the pattern of capital raising through the year.
  • While we see shares doing well this year, right now they are vulnerable to a short-term pull back after strong gains since December. Renewed trade fears obviously don’t help.

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