The key points are as follows: After a year since the first Fed rate hike in this cycle, the Fed has finally moved the Fed Funds rate up again from a range of 0.25-0.5% to 0.5-0.75%. The move reflects confidence in the ongoing recovery in the US economy. Given ongoing low wages growth, low inflation…
Key points are as follows: 2016 started badly for investors with worries about global growth and deflation. But global growth turned out okay &, despite political events, rising bond yields & disappointing Australian growth, the end result has been a constrained but okay year for diversified investors. 2017 is likely to see another year of…
Key points are as follows… Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong when it comes to investing. As investment markets are forward looking its often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. A key way to avoid many…
Key points are as follows… Expensive housing and high household debt leave Australian housing vulnerable. But without a recession or much higher interest rates a property crash is unlikely. However, the surging supply of apartments and the continuing strength of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets pose an increasing risk. Average dwelling prices in these…
Key points are as follows… · After decent gains in shares and other growth assets since February (& Brexit) we look to have hit another rough patch on the back of concerns around the Fed, global bond yields and event risk in the months ahead. · However, with most share markets offering reasonable value, global…
The main points are as follows: Key megatrends relevant for investors are: slower growth in household debt; the backlash against economic rationalism & rise of populism; geopolitical tensions; aging and slowing populations; low commodity prices; technological innovation & automation; the Asian ascendancy & China’s growing middle class; rising environmental awareness; and the energy revolution. Most…
Key points are as follows… The past financial year has been rather messy for investors with another long worry list, a bear market in most share markets and record low bond yields. However, returns for diversified investors were not disastrous and followed several strong years. More importantly there are nine reasons for optimism: okay growth,…
The key points are as follows: The Australian Federal election has delivered a messy result suggesting an even more difficult Senate for the Coalition if it is able to form government and the risk of return to minority government. The risk is that we will see a further slippage in the budget outlook – with…
Key points are as follows… The success of Trump and Sanders in the US, the close Brexit vote and the Australian Federal Election campaign suggest median voters have shifted to the left and support for economic rationalist policies has fallen. The risk is that a reversal of such policies will be another contributor to constrained…
Key points are as follows… At extremes the investment crowd is invariably wrong. Everyone who wants to buy will have done so and the only way is down (or vice versa in crowd panics). The trouble with crowds is rooted in the lapses of logic observed by individual investors. Investors are best off taking a…