The key points are as follows: Talk of a property crash is likely to ramp up again with signs that the Sydney and Melbourne property markets are cooling. But the Australian property market is a lot more complicated than the crash calls suggest. We continue to expect a 5-10% downswing in Sydney and Melbourne property…
The key points are as follows: Despite a lengthy list of worries including Brexit, Trump and messy Australian growth, the past financial year saw strong returns for diversified investors as shares recovered from a rough time in 2015-16 and real assets like unlisted commercial property and infrastructure continued to see strong returns. Key lessons for…
The key points are as follows: Geopolitical issues create much interest, but as we saw over the last year starting with Brexit this doesn’t mean they’ll have a big negative impact on investment markets. However, a backlash against economic rationalist policies and inequality, and the declining relative power of the US globally will likely mean…
The key points are as follows: The closure of speculative short positions in the $A, a bounce in commodity prices, delays in Fed rate hikes and expectations the next interest rate move by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up, have stabilised the $A over the last year. However, the downtrend in the $A…
The key points are as follows: A rebound in the economy in the December quarter confirms that Australia is continuing to grow and avoid recession. There are seven reasons to be upbeat about the Australian outlook: thanks to a more flexible economy Australia is on track to take out the Netherlands for the longest period…
Oliver’s Insights – The Australian economy and profits – seven reasons to be upbeat The key points are as follows: The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely. Expect average home prices to fall 5-10% once an…
Key points Expensive housing and high household debt leave Australian housing vulnerable; but without a recession or much higher interest rates a property crash is unlikely. The surging supply of apartments and the continuing strength of the Sydney and Melbourne property markets pose an increasing risk. Average dwelling prices in these cities are likely to…
The key points are as follows: After a year since the first Fed rate hike in this cycle, the Fed has finally moved the Fed Funds rate up again from a range of 0.25-0.5% to 0.5-0.75%. The move reflects confidence in the ongoing recovery in the US economy. Given ongoing low wages growth, low inflation…
Key points are as follows: 2016 started badly for investors with worries about global growth and deflation. But global growth turned out okay &, despite political events, rising bond yields & disappointing Australian growth, the end result has been a constrained but okay year for diversified investors. 2017 is likely to see another year of…
Key points are as follows… Many of the mistakes investors make are based on common sense rules of thumb that turn out to be wrong when it comes to investing. As investment markets are forward looking its often wise for investors to turn common sense logic on its head. A key way to avoid many…