Key points are as follows…
· 2014 has been a positive but somewhat constrained and messy year for investors as the global economy remained in a cyclical “sweet spot” despite various threats, but Australian shares underperformed.
· 2015 is likely to see okay but uneven global growth, low inflation and easy monetary conditions. While the US is likely to start gradually raising rates, other countries including Australia are likely to ease monetary policy.
· Against this backdrop the bull market in shares and most growth assets is likely to continue. However, with shares dependent on rising earnings, volatility is likely to be a bit higher and returns okay but constrained.
· The main things to keep an eye on are: when/if the Fed starts to raise rates, Europe, the Chinese property slump, and growth outside of mining in Australia.